Senedd election: A step into the unknown for the Vale and Bridgend

By Philip Irwin: Senedd election - Thursday 7th May

Glamorgan Star news 2 days ago

6 minutes read

Why would I start an article on the May 7th Senedd elections with a quote from the man who wrote Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?

After all, the man who said it (William Goldman) is not an authority on Welsh politics. He was talking about movies and the fact that some, with all the advantages, sink like a scuttled ship, and others are triumphs

Specifically, he was talking about the classic movie Casablanca, starring Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman. A film that had ‘disaster’ written all over it. There were constant rows between the scriptwriters, director and the studio, and the actors were getting their dialogue daily at the last minute.

And yet it was a massive success. People loved it. Goldman contrasted this with movies that had all the pieces in place – actors who were hot and directors at the top if their game and yet, the film was a flop.

Goldman’s quote is very simple. It is “Nobody knows anything.”

Yes, that includes me.

And it includes you too. (Sorry about that).

And it certainly includes all those self-appointed experts on social media.

On 7th May (unless you have chosen a postal vote) we can cast our votes to elect a new Senedd. The last time we voted, we chose 60 Members of Senedd. This time, we will be electing 96.

Not everyone is happy about this increase – which is an understatement.

We will vote to elect six members in each of 16 constituencies. Looking at the Glamorgan Star’s circulation area, the most relevant is Penybont Bro Morgannwg – Bridgend county borough and the Vale of Glamorgan.

It has been argued that the new system has been designed to ‘phase out’ Members with a strong personal following. It is not unknown for an MP or MS to ‘go rogue’ and ignore an area of party policy, relying on the public to vote them back in.

Under the new system, the important thing will be how high up the candidate list a Member is. So, offending the party could see them moved down the list – deselected by a different route.

Residents in this constituency used to vote in either Bridgend county or the Vale. The new constituency is almost twice as big and six Members of Senedd will be elected.

Before looking at the new larger constituency, let’s have a look at the old ones, starting with the Vale. This one was simple. Jane Hutt wins.

That has been the case since 1999. And yet the Vale has always been a marginal. The same electorate voted in Alun Cairns as Conservative MP for the Vale for 14 years (2010 to 2024).

Over those years, various bright-eyed and bushy tailed Conservative candidates talked positively about how they were going to unseat Ms Hutt but it never happened. It was like the Peanuts cartoon strip when Lucy would encourage Charlie Brown to kick the ball – only to whip it away at the last moment.

But now we have a Penybont Bro Morgannwg seat where Jane Hutt is not standing. Her personal vote must surely have been a factor so what will happen now she has retired?

Labour’s first two choices on the list are Sarah Murphy (the current Bridgend MS) and Huw David, the former leader of Bridgend County Borough Council (BCBC). How will Vale Labour voters respond to that?

The current Labour Mayor of the Vale, Carys Stallard, is No 3 in the list but will Labour get three seats? The polls don’t support that.

The Senedd building. Photo: Adobe. — | The Senedd building. *Photo: Adobe.*

The other half of the constituency, (Bridgend county borough) is a bit simpler. In the Welsh Assembly, it has voted Labour. The former first minister, Carwyn Jones (1999 to 2021), was succeeded by Sarah Murphy in 2021.

Although the Conservatives managed to get an MP elected (Jamie Wallis, 2019 to 2024), they never had a Senedd candidate elected.

So how do we attempt to predict how the Penybont Bro Morgannwg election will go, when there are so many unknowns?

Reform has recently become a power. At the last general election, it was the arrival of Reform that did for Alun Cairns. Reform’s Toby Rhodes-Matthews polled almost 7,000 votes and the beneficiary was Labour’s Kanishka Narayan, who won by 3,000 votes.

Since that election, Reform are obviously a force and the polls are currently painting a grim picture for the ‘established’ parties. For the last month, polls have been suggesting that the Senedd elections will be a fight between Plaid Cymru and Reform as the two main parties, with Labour, the Conservatives and Greens fighting over the scraps.

Looking closely at the new Penybont Bro Morgannwg constituency, it is difficult to make predictions. For instance, in the old Vale constituency, Plaid had a significant power base in Dinas Powys. The party gained three Vale councillors there but, under the new constituency, Dinas Powys has been transferred to the Caerdydd Penarth constituency.

That should improve Plaid’s chances in that capital city constituency, but how will it affect the party’s chances in the Vale? Plaid still have a base in Barry (four councillors) but are weak in the western Vale – and not much better in the Bridgend constituency, with just one councillor on BCBC.

A brief note. Looking at the candidates’ list below, most parties have listed six candidates – one for each seat. However, I can’t find anyone suggesting that any party, based on current polling, will get more than two seats.

If – and it is still a big if – the voting follows the polls, then Plaid and Reform are likely to get two seats each of the available six. That leaves three ‘established’ parties – Labour, Conservatives and Greens – fighting over just two seats. I will leave Glamorgan Star readers to take a guess at which one will miss out.

In case anyone notes that I have left out the Lib Dems then sorry folks., I will happily apologise if I have that one wrong but the party has never been strong in either the Vale or Bridgend. There is still time for Ed Davey to ride a roller coaster or two, but I’m not holding my breath.

The new Senedd chamber – designed to take 96 Members. — | The new Senedd chamber – designed to
take 96 Members.

Returning to those lists of six candidates, we have decided to list each party’s top three. I really cannot see anyone listed four or lower getting a seat. In fact, it will be a major surprise if any No 3 choices get in.

In view of this, it is a little hard to see why the parties have listed six candidates. In fact, in Penybont Bro Morgannwg, BCBC cabinet member Neelo Farr is No 7 in the list. It would take a great many social media skeletons or general strops to move her far enough up the list to be paying attention at the count.

Of course, candidate wastage has been an issue for Reform in Penybont Bro Morgannwg. Three of their original six quit for various reasons within a few days of being nominated – including number one and two in the list. Instead of moving No3 up to No1 and No4 up to No 2, Reform drafted in two new candidates.

You can add to that the case of Caroline Jones, who lives in the constituency and had experience of being an MS, first for UKIP and then for the Brexit Party.

Despite being the Reform UK spokesperson for Bridgend, she was offered the No 3 spot on Reform’s list in the Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr constituency. She promptly declined, citing parachuted Reform candidates as a major reason. She is standing as an independent.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg Constituency

LABOUR

1. Sarah Murphy
2. Huw David
3. Carys Stallard

LIB DEM

1. Steven Rajam
2. Gabriella Ferguson
3. Paula Gülen Yates

PLAID CYMRU

Mark Hooper
Sarah Rees
Luke Fletcher

REFORM

1. Sarah Cooper-Lesadd
2. Gareth Thomas
3. Paul Young

CONSERVATIVE

1. Andrew RT Davies
2. Altaf Hussein
3. Jonathan Pratt

GREEN

Amy Greenfield
Saar Lenaerts
Rob Sage

HERITAGE PARTY

1. Gill White

INDEPENDENT Please Note. Those listed below are not in the same party. As they say on Strictly, they are listed “in no particular order”.

William Jeffreys
Caroline Jones
Lucia Wyatt

Caerdydd Penarth Constituency

This new constituency has ‘poached’ an area of the Vale that used to be in the Vale constituency – Dinas Powys and Sully.

The candidates are as follows:

LABOUR

1. Huw Thomas
2. Ruba Sivagnanam
3. Peter Bradbury

CONSERVATIVE

1. Calum Davies
2. James Hamblin
3. Dominic Davies

REFORM

1. Joseph Martin
2. Mark Reckless
3. Robert Thomas

GREEN

1. Anthony Slaughter
2. Tess Marshall
3. Rowan Stanger

COMMUNIST

1. Robert Griffiths

HERITAGE PARTY

1. Rhiannon Morrissey

LIB DEM

1. Cadan ap Thomas
2. Irfan Latif
3. Elinor Dixon

PLAID CYMRU

1. Anna Brycha
2. Kiera Marshall
3. Letitia Gonzalez

PROPEL

1. Neil John McEvoy
2. Ceri McEvoy

INDEPENDENT

1. Rhys ab Owen

By Philip Irwin – Senior News Reporter

Politics:

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